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Some very important points that most people do not understand about Bitcoin

Point 1)
Most people do not understand that you can't send money over internet, but only information. Bitcoin is the first digital settlement layer.
When I send a picture to someone on Facebook messenger, I don't actually send a picture. I send information about the pictures structure, and the picture gets restructured on the client side (the cellphone) of the user I send it to. Copy of the information is being sent, not the picture itself. So you can't send money over internet, it is not possible, only information.
If I have a bank account at some bank, and I send $50 dollars to another person in the same bank by using the banks website, then a transaction happens between two people within the same infrastructure, which is the banks back-end system and database. So the banks system just subtracts $50 dollars from one person and adds $50 dollars to another person. But no money has moved, only information has been edited. But if I send money to someone that uses another Bank, then this bank has its own infrastructure which is independent of the first. So Bank1 tells Bank2 that they have a user that wants to send money to a user of the other bank. So Bank1 subtracts $50 from User1, and Bank2 adds $50 to User2, but now Bank1 owes Bank2 $50, why? Because you can't send money over internet. So they have to settle the difference between them with some kind of a settlement system, (cash, gold or a third party like a central bank). This difference can be the result of many transactions between many users and can be millions of dollars of worth, the settlement can be done periodically for example every 6 months.
With Bitcoin, because of how the system works, it is almost as if you can send value over internet for the first time, even though you don't really send value, you still send information, but since the infrastructure is global, it is like the first example, it is as if the world has (one large bank infrastructure), that is fully automated and which no one controls.
This alone makes Bitcoin extremely valuable, because it is a trust less digital settlement layer which is extremely secure and not dependent on one particular nation or organisation.
Point 2)
There can never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. This is very hard for people to grasp. Because what do you mean there can never be more than 21 million bitcoin? It sounds like a game, such a scam... People do not understand that Bitcoin is not normal software. In normal software the developers can change the code as they want and publish the code when they want. They do not understand that Bitcoin is a software that is not like a normal software. You can't actually change the number even if the number is programmed in. Which of-course most people will deny, because it makes no sense for most people. They do not understand that even though it is theoretically possible to change it, it is practically almost impossible. It is theoretically possible for me to convince half of Sweden to burn half of their money, but practically impossible. Just because something is theoretically possible, doesn't mean that it will happen within a time frame, or even in your lifetime. In order for the 21 million supply to change, most people in the Bitcoin community needs to agree on it, which is practically impossible. Miners have to change to the new protocol and so on. Not going to happen.
When gold treasures were lost in the past, someone else could find them. Gold practically never completely disappears, it is a chemical element. With Bitcoin, once it is lost it is practically lost forever (put aside quantum computing for now and other theoretical unforeseeable events). 21 million is only the upper theoretical limit. Bitcoin will be more and more scarce as time goes by. Gold is not like this. Gold has an inflation rate of 1,5% every year. The reason it is constant is because even if the stock gets bigger, the flow into the stock also gets bigger because of better mining capabilities, so you can look at it as constant inflation of 1.5% every year. With Bitcoin, not only do the stock to flow ratio go up every halvening, and the flow into bitcoin not only decreases with time, but almost goes into negative because of lost coins every year. This is completely insane and people do not understand this. If you combine this almost deflationary nature of Bitcoin with extreme bullish market sentiment then you will realize that no one knows what is going to happen in the future because wrapping your head around all this and to come to a conclusion about the Bitcoin price will make you sound absolutely delusional to most people.
Point 3)
People think that $100,000 bitcoin is wishful thinking and that there is not enough money in the world for Bitcoin to be worth millions of dollars. Which I can assure you is false. Bitcoin can even be worth $50 million dollars per coin, which would make 2 satoshi 1 dollar. Even if one Bitcoin transaction would cost 10 000 Satoshi. You might say, that's not possible, whats the point if one transaction is so expensive. Again, you don't need to actually do a transfer of money, as in the first example of point 1, virtual transactions on bank level can happen, or on Coinbase. You can send 100 satoshi to someone and pay 1 satoshi in fee "on the bank level", not on chain, banks or exchanges then will settle the difference as they want. At least with Bitcoin you have the option to be you own bank, even if that will cost you more, you still have the option. This is already happening in front of your eyes. Banks like Dutch ING, Deutsche bank, are already working on custody services for cryptocurrencies. And even exchanges want to operate as banks and exchanges like Coinbase are working to get license for this. This is already happening and it is the correct move forwards, a mix between the legacy banking system and cryptocurrencies. You can already spend your Bitcoin with Coinbase Visa Card or similar services. Most people are too lazy and stupid to operate like us with their own wallets, it is a fact well known.
In terms of the price, money inflow is not the same as market cap. Take for instance the following simple scenario. I own 100% of the shares of my own company and I decide to sell 10% of the company for 1 million USD, which will value my whole company at 10 million USD, so 1 million flow into my company leads to 10x market cap of 10 million USD. For Bitcoin to have 21 trillion market cap, Bitcoin does not need 21 trillion of money inflow. Bitcoin price is dependent on market sentiment, if the market sentiment is such that very few people want to sell their coins because the price keeps going up then you might have 100x market cap of the money inflow. So 1 billion USD in money inflow translates to 100 billion USD in market cap. The multiplier can be 10x, 2x or 50x, all depends on market sentiment and time period. So an inflow of 10 trillion USD in 10 years might lead to 100 trillion USD market cap of BTC and 5 million USD per Bitcoin.
Bitcoin value have no roof, the price might actually just keep going up and up and up and up and up. We have never had something that is absolutely scarce, and global, and seen as an alternative form of money, when the rest of the world keeps bubbling up. There is no limit on the BTC price because the whole world works with a bubbly system, and the way Bitcoin is price discovered, is a guaranteed insane BTC price in the future. Even $100 million USD per Bitcoin in 50 years before I am dead is possible.
Point 4)
Fiat does not need to die, and Bitcoin does not need to take over in order for Bitcoin to have "ridiculous price". No financial crisis is needed. Actually what you want is things to just continue as they have done in the last 10 years. No too extreme events. Just "small events" here and there. You can't change human nature, it is inevitable. Bitcoin is so ingrained into our world that there is no way back. There will be people with whole Bitcoin, and people without. Just like people with gold and stock investments and real estate, and people without those things. No insane events, this is all normal.
Point 5)
Bitcoin has won as the financial cryptocurrency. No flippening will happen. The only flippening will be with gold and fiat currencies. If I wanted to, I could have developed a system like PayPal in 1 month time, and it would be able to do 5000 transactions per second because I would use MySQL and SSD, but no one would use my service because they would not trust me because they have no idea who I am and what my service is, and there is no one to send money too, so the network is not there. Bitcoin has won because security and network effect is way more important than transactions per second. Transactions per second will be dealt with on bank level, exchange level, or layer 2 solutions. This is already clear to me. Bitcoin has won.
Point 6)
In order to understand Bitcoin and what will happen in the future, you have to be able to see things that are not in front of you. You can't compare Bitcoin to Tulip mania, or even Gold. Because something like Bitcoin has never existed before and you have to think about it's properties and try to understand it with human nature and with how the world works and how everything keeps increasing, and Bitcoin is the thing that does not increase in supply. You will eventually accept the unnatural thought of Bitcoin never stopping going up in value, which is something that is hard to come to terms with, because it feels unnatural, "and it could not possibly be so".
Point 7)
The Gini coefficient of Bitcoin is not a big deal. I used to think that it was unfair that some people had 1,000 BTC, 10,000 BTC, or even 50,000 BTC. And I was afraid that they might dump their coins into the market and crash it. I have now realised that these people are smart people and they think like me, and they won't just dump their whole BTC holding on the market as that might be a very bad move for them. It is like when a majority holder of a company, like Jeff Bezos and Amazon, understands that he can't sell all of his shares in one go as that would effect Amazon stock value too much and would not be smart. It is best to sell when the price goes up, but then when they sell the BTC will just be eaten up by other people, and they will be at a loss in the longer term. And the other thing is that perhaps there is no other smart place to put that fiat money, Bitcoin might just be the best place to keep those amounts of money. Someone with a very large holding has two options. He can either sell his BTC, in which case the price would go down but the Bitcoin would be spread out between potentially thousands of new users, or he might decide to never sell. If he decides to never sell, it is as if those Bitcoins are lost forever and that is good for the Bitcoin price and Bitcoin in general. If he decides to sell then Bitcoin will be divided more equally among many users which is also a good thing for Bitcoin because that increases the network effect, and after he sells he no longer has the power to drive the price down, but now he sits on a very large fiat holding, he might even buy back at a higher price and drive the price higher. I know that if I had 10,000 BTC, I would sell 1,000 BTC and buy a house and a car and whatever I wanted, and sell another 1,000 BTC to diversify into some other assets. And keep 8,000 BTC because I don't know of anywhere else to put that kind of money into good work. I believe in Bitcoin so as an investor it makes sense to keep it here. I probably would never sell because I would never need anything else after the initial 1,000 BTC sell.
Bitcoin is like a black hole that sucks in the Earths monetary resources over time. Most people that bought really early and were smart enough to hold all the way to these prices will only sell what they need to sell and keep the rest in BTC. Some of them might want to speculate and try to time the ATH, only to buy back in with most of the fiat they sold. Which means that even if money goes out of the market, it only goes out of the market temporarily, only to get back in at hopefully lower prices. And so the market grows, and grows and grows over time.
Point 8)
Bitcoin has intrinsic value. When people like Peter Schiff say that gold has intrinsic value because gold can be used in electronics and aviation and therefore gold has value but Bitcoin has no value because it has no intrinsic value, you have to take a pause and do some critical thinking. Can you imagine 16th century pirates looking to find a gold treasure worth an insane amount because they knew gold had value because of electronics and aviation? This is clearly absurd. Gold has been used as money for thousands of years and electronics and aviation was not even a thing 150 years ago. Gold has value because it is globally scarce. Bitcoin is absolutely verifiable scarce. Bitcoin has intrinsic value because of it's monetary policy and because you can carry millions of dollars of value by remembering only 24 words in your head, and carry that value wherever you want and no one can stop you, that is intrinsic value.
People had a hard time understanding that a website like Facebook could be worth billions of dollars, because it was not physical, it was "just a website". Even a website like Google search is not physical and still it has immense value. It is valuable information and it provides a good service, and that has value, it does not have to be physical and tangible.
submitted by 21btc to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

EDC Blockchain and ECRO System in the List of Major Blockchain Events 2019!

EDC Blockchain and ECRO System in the List of Major Blockchain Events 2019!
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2019 showed that the Blockchain industry justifies the status of a technological revolution. Bitcoin's capitalization exceeded that of countries such as Turkey, Pakistan and South Africa. And China, India, and Nigeria have already bought cars, real estate and various services for an EDC coin!
Let's think about these and other events of last year, which had the greatest resonance.
Adoption of the cryptography law in China
Speculation and fiction are officially over! China at the state level said "yes" to Blockchain technology! The Chinese Communist Party now directly manages the Central Cryptography Agency. The agency will promote and support cryptography research, protect intellectual property rights and promote the development of public/private key technology, according to Primitive Foundation partner Dovey Wan.
Against this background, the Central Bank of China started talking about creating its own stablecoin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the blockchain will be the main technology for important innovation breakthroughs! The Crypto market reacted instantly: bitcoin rose by more than $2000 in one week of October (from $7500 to $9500), while EDC quotations reached 1 US cents. The optimism then decreased again when it became clear that the Chinese are still fundamentally distinguishing between the notions of "Blockchain" and "Cryptocurrencies".
Bitcoin futures launch
On September 23, 2019, ICE Corporation (International Exchange) started trading daily and month bitcoin futures on the Bakkt platform.
The platform was officially approved by the U.S. Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and bitcoin deposits of users are insured for $125 million.
The appearance of this platform was associated with certain expectations: the growth of bitcoin to $ 20,000, and the accession of institutional investors. As we already know, these forecasts did not come true, and the peak daily trading volume did not exceed $43 million. Nevertheless, the expectations from this news remain high: both the prestige and liquidity of the market can only improve.
Project Libra's failure
On June 18, the release of Facebook's own cryptographic currency called Libra was to be launched. By all primary signs, the coin could become a market favorite, and the project participants included Visa, Mastercard, eBay, and other major online platforms.
However, it did not work out: problems with regulators reached the hearings in the U.S. Congress, where Mark Zuckerberg himself had to personally promise that Libra will not be launched until all regulators approve of it, and Facebook may even leave the founders.
Project stoppage TON
GRAM Token from Telegram is another "loser" in the big games of life. The developers managed to make the initial offer (ICO) for 1.7 billion dollars and even presented a compiled test wallet. But the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expressed confidence that GRAM at the token trading stage was sold illegally, falling under the definition of a security.
Now Pavel Durov is facing long legal proceedings, and the project is frozen for an indefinite period. This "triumph" of U.S. market regulators once again underscores the fact that big money at the stage of the birth of new players on the crypto market plays a much smaller role than the real value of coins and technology.
EDC Blockchain Coin constructor for entrepreneurs
Producers of goods and services and businessmen in various niches can now create their own bonus token or a full-fledged cryptographic currency using PoS mining without having at their disposal a team of IT professionals, ICO access opportunities or huge investments. Specialists of the EDC Blockchain platform offered the market a technological coin constructor and ready-made package solutions for the development of small and medium businesses.
It has never been easier to token and scale any project or startup. The constructor is available to all users of the EDC platform, which offers customers a number of bonuses (for example, an automatic listing of new coins on partner exchanges, marketing support and advertising at the level of its international community). A real step forward in business tokenization.
Start of a self-contained blockchain ecosystem ECRO System
Specialists of ECRO Chain Holding, under whose leadership ECRO System projects function, were able to create a "bridge" between the crypto industry and real business.
ECRO System provides an environment for cooperation between manufacturers, sellers and consumers anywhere in the world, including global marketplace, exchange, trading platform, a launching platform for startups, additional services and even an academy for educational purposes. In a global eco-system using a blockchain, a variety of goods and services are safely sold and purchased, any coins are exchanged conveniently and quickly, and new technology projects are made possible. And the ecosystem is expanding geographically by training its own marketers. Application of blockchain, technologies of an artificial intellect, a crypto-merchant allow ECRO System to create conditions for the reliable digital economy.
Crypto trading authorization for German banks
The Bundesrat passed a law allowing German banking institutions to officially sell and buy cryptocurrencies. Discussions in financial circles are still ongoing, as confidential transfers open up space for illegal transactions and money laundering. But the fact is that Vice-Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz advocated the creation of a national digital currency, and Sven Hildebrandt, head of the consulting company DLC, is confident that Germany will become a "cryptocurrency paradise".
Official cooperation of Ukraine with Binance Crypto Exchange
Binance International exchange has signed an official memorandum on cooperation with the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. Popularization and legalization of the cryptographic industry in Ukraine led to a sharp increase in the interest of global exchange and trading services to start working in one of the largest European countries.
On November 6, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a draft law on the implementation of FATF rules, which regulates all basic concepts and legal aspects of virtual assets that can be considered as property or can be used for payment and investment purposes.
The draft law on asset tokenization, which will allow private and public companies to conduct commercial transactions with their assets in the form of tokens or crypto-stocks, is under development.
We are living at the peak of historical technology development when the speed of real technical changes outpaces even the speed of human imagination. The year 2020 could be a "quantum leap" in cryptographic technology around the world.
The world economy, as well as small and medium businesses, seems to be best prepared for the wide range of opportunities offered by the Blockchain. The EDC Blockchain and ECRO System project teams will continue to develop their products and services in order to maximize the quality of life of modern people through blockchain innovations. We wish you a successful 2020 year filled with new technologies!
via https://blockchain.mn
#edcblockchain #cryptocurrency #global_platform #graphene #lpos #coin_constructor #masternode #leasing #edc #edccoin #edcmining
submitted by EDC-Blockchain to u/EDC-Blockchain [link] [comments]

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One
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TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL
Analyst: Song Shuangjie
Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin
Guide:
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.
Summary:
BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. There are 3 major rules of the BTC price cycle:
A. BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. A complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The price-rising section will commence one year ahead of the time before the output is halved. The BTC output was halved for the first time at the end of November 2012, and before that the BTC price touched the bottom in November 2011. The BTC output was halved for the second time in July 2016, as the BTC price touched the bottom in August 2015. As you can see, each time BTC output halving, is the start of a price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begins with it.
B. BTC price fluctuation range decreases as market value increasing. The BTC’s (in circulation) market value varies with its price fluctuations, which means BTC’s price rising makes its market value increases, and the price fluctuation range decreases. It is similar to the historical process of other asset classes. During the first price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 10636 times which was the biggest gain, and the maximum drawdown was declined by 93.76%. During the second price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, and declined by 83.93% maximum. During the third price cycle, BTC rose by 98.57 times at most, the maximum declining has not been confirmed yet.
C. The innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and more and more approved by the mainstream. From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, and many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certification, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has evolved and is more approved by the mainstream.
The third round of the price cycle might come to an end around May 2019, and followed by the fourth round of price cycle. The maximum rise in the BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will be smaller than last three cycles. BTC's increasing market value demands more capital. Digital token shall embrace supervision to absorb more institutional funds. ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, it will shift from Crowdsale to ETF, and from deregulation to embracing supervision.
Risk Tips: ETFs have put capital amount into this market less than that we expected. Quantum computer technology is advancing by leaps and bounds
Content
1 The First Round of Price Cycle .
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.3 BTC-led innovatioized by the mainstream
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
List of Graphs
Graph 1: BTC Price Trend in The First Price Cycle (in USD)
Graph 2: BTC price trend in the second round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 3: The number of tokens in 2013 has increased significantly Graph 4: BTC price trend in the third round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 5: VIX index and BTC price are negatively correlated
Graph 6: Crowdsale has dominated blockchain investment since 2017 (millions of US dollars)
Graph 7: A large number of Crypto Funds were established in recent years.
Graph 8: ETH price trend (in USD)
Graph 9: ETH price is positively related to the size of Crowdsale financing
Graph 10: Lightning network capacity continues to grow
Graph 11: The number of lightning network channels continues to grow
Graph 12: The global Crowdsale growth rate slows down in 2018 .
Graph 13: Crowdsale’s fundraising has started to decline since 2018 .
Graph 14: Significant growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector in 2018
Graph 15: BTC block reward trend reduction
Graph 16: BTC price cycle and halving mechanism (in USD)
Graph 17: BTC market value scale trend increase
Graph 18: BTC price fluctuations become smaller
Graph 19: Admission to mainstream institutions has continued since the end of 2018
Graph 20: The third round of the price cycle may be completed around May 2019
Graph 21: The current stage of the price cycle has been probable more than half, and the downside space is limited
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. --Mark Twain
‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which results in producing an idea, in some investors’ mind, that the price of BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. No matter it is the A-share market of 2007 or the one of 2015, or any ‘bubble time’ in human history, the cycle power played its role. As far as BTC is concerned, its price has also experienced three rounds of cycles.
In addition, when the asset price is in a dark period of continuous decline and weak rebound, the power of the cycle also works. As long as it is a valuable asset, its price will eventually bounce back from the bottom. Opportunities have always been there, if you have an asset with high potential in hand. In the dark moments before dawn, the more you are afraid, the more you will be confused. At this time, you have to believe in the value investing. ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’, not the other way around. That means, we shall invest reversely, buying undervalued assets gradually in the bottom region of price decline cycle; selling overvalued assets gradually in the top region of price-rising cycle; and following the trend in other time region of the cycle.
1 The First Round of Price Cycle
The first round of BTC price cycle lasted for 610 days, from March 2010 to November 2011, and in this cycle, BTC price rise rate was the highest of BTCs three price cycles.
The price rise stage of the first round of price cycle, from March 2010 to June 2011, lasted for 447 days. The starting price was 0.003 USD/piece, and the highest price was 31.91 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 10,636 times. The price decline section of the first round of price cycle, from June 2011 to November 2011, lasted for 163 days. In this price decline section, the starting price of BTC was $31.91 per piece, and the lowest price was $1.99 per piece. The decline rate was 94%.
On May 22, 2010, the famous BTC Pizza dealt. Laszlo Hanyecz from Jacksonville, FL, bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTCs. Each price ofBTC is less than 0.01US dollars.
In the first round of the price cycle, there is no explicit positive or negative factors causing BTC's price huge fluctuation. Fluctuations are more like in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC bubble bursted in November 2011, its price was in a trend of increasing. The reason of rise was that the price base of BTC was very low. With the understanding of BTC gradually getting better, the demand increased, and then, the price rose. For example, June 2011, WikiLeaks and some organizations began accepting BTC donations.
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2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
The second round of BTC price cycle lasted for 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, and in this cycle, the price of BTC exceeded gold for the first time.
The price rise stage of the second round of price cycle, from November 2011 to November 2013, lasted for 743 days. The starting price was $1.99 USD/piece, and the highest price was 1,242 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 623 times. The price decline section of the second round of price cycle. From November 2013 to August 2015, lasted for 634 days. In this price decline stage, the starting price of BTC was 1,242 USD per piece, and the lowest price was 199.57 USD per piece. The decline rate was 84%.
At the second price cycle, the range of application of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept BTC; and in October 2013, the world's first BTC ATM was deployed in a coffee shop in Vancouver where customers could buy and sell BTC. In November 2013, the University of Nicosia announced accepting BTC for tuition, the university's chief financial officer called it "gold of tomorrow"; In addition to some underground economy and gray economy began to accept BTC, BTC is also getting closer to daily life.
The success of BTC popularized altcoins. The first type of altcoin LTC (Litecoin) was created in October 2011, and it is the time when the BTC price came to the end of price decline. In 2011, Namecoin and SwiftCoin were born successively. In 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin were issued, however, BTC was still in the stage of rising slowly from the bottom, and the market was not hot. Along with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the altcoins is rampant, and a large number of altcoins are issued. According to CoinMarketCap data, there were 66 kinds of altcoins at the end of 2013, while there were less than 10 at the beginning of the year.
The safe-haven properties of BTC are widely approved. BTC was a choice for people in many countries that are in crises. The residents flocked to BTC, hoping to maintain assets value through BTC. This phenomenon has occurred many times during the European debt crisis. For example, in early 2013, in order to get the bailout, the Cyprus government imposed taxes on deposits and imposed strict capital controls. In order to prevent property from shrinking, the Cypriot people rushed to bank runs and exchanged their currencies for BTC. The price of BTC quickly rose from 30 something to 265 US dollars.

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Due to the lack of supervision, BTC is often affected by negative events, which makes the market confidence in the danger of collapsing. In October 2013, the FBI seized approximately 26,000 BTCs from the Silk Road website, causing the BTC price to collapse to 110 US dollars. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China banned the use of BTC by Chinese financial institutions, which made the price of BTC declined. In February 2014, Mt. Gox, the largest BTC exchange at the time, said that 850,000 BTCs of its customers were stolen, worth nearly 500 million US dollars, and BTC prices fell nearly half, from 867 to 439 US dollars.
The emergence of a large number of altcoins caused market bleeding. Since 2014, the number of altcoins has exploded. By August 2015, the number has reached 556, resulting in diversion of funds and market expansion. On May 1, 2013, BTC accounted for 94.29% of the market value of all tokens, and the market value of other tokens except the top 10 tokens was about 1%. By August 25, 2015, the proportion of BTC is about 83%, and the other tokens account for 4%, which is obvious.
No matter how magical token is, it is still a kind of asset. The mean return of value is a basic common sense of investment. The value will pull the price back to it, just like the gravity. The risk increases with the price rises, and the value appears when the price declines. In the rising section of this cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, which is a great rise rate. When the price is too high, and the potential return in the future is insufficient, the attractiveness to new investors will fall, and the old investors will leave and look for more lucrative assets. Once the power of trend investors exhausted, the trend will reverse.
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
The third round of price cycle of BTC is not over and is currently in the downward phase of the cycle. The price increased from August 2015 and lasted for 845 days till December 2017. The starting price of the price-rising cycle BTC was 199.57 USD/piece, and the highest price was close to 20,000 USD/piece. The rise rate is up to 99 times. Since December 2017, the price started to decline. The price has fallen to the lowest 3,191.30 US dollars up to now, a drop of 84%.
BTC networks expanded rapidly, and BTC has gained increasing recognition among legislators and traditional financial companies. Studies have shown that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but by legitimate businesses. During this price cycle, people from more countries can get in touch with, select, trade and use BTC on a daily basis. In January 2016, Bitcoin computing capacity reached 1 exahash/S for the first time; In March 2016, the Japanese cabinet acknowledged that BTC has a function similar to real money. In 2017, Norway's largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC accounts. In December 2017, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, which is an important step for BTC to take toward mainstream investment. In October 2018, Fidelity launched its independent subsidiary Fidelity Digital Asset Services to provide digital asset services to institutional customers. In December 2018, the first round of financing was completed by the token exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. In February 2019, Nasdaq officially launched - Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX)- two indexes. The pension fund of US invests in the encryption fund, the mainstream organization is accelerating, and the relevant infrastructure is gradually improved.
BTC has become a risky asset. Under the current “three lows” environment - low interest rates, low spreads and low volatility, investors are seeking high returns, which leads to excessive financial risk behaviors and complacency, investors' risk appetite, and high leverage tools and the acceptance of high-risk products has increased, arbitrage transactions have prevailed, liquidity mismatches have been severe, and the overall market is fragile. As the results we can see that, the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). A lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, while a higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index indicates that investors are optimistic about S&P 500, while the higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when the market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Risk assets will be dumped when risk appetite reduces panic market. BTC bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risky asset. Since December 2017, with the decline of the VIX index, the price of BTC rises, and the price of BTC is negatively correlated with the VIX index. At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index skyrocketed and BTC fell rapidly. In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.

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Crowdsale has become the main financing method in the blockchain field. Crowdsale was born in the second round of the price cycle, Mastercoin did the world's first Crowdsale in July 2013. In 2014, Ethereum also raised funds through Crowdsale, when the price of ETH was less than 0.22 USD per piece. After 2016, when it is in the third price cycle, Crowdsale is popular around the world, and many websites began to provide information and discussion communities for Crowdsale. From a global perspective, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment since 2017, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. In 2017, Crowdsale raised 7.4 billion US dollars, and in the first half of 2018, Crowdsale Raised 12 billion US dollars.
The Crypto Fund emerged. Along with the Crowdsale boom, a large number of Crypto Funds were created. The number of Crypto Funds newly established in 2017 was nearly 200, far exceeding the total amount of the Crypto funds created in previous years, which fully demonstrated that, with the rise in the price of the token, the enthusiasm of funds to blockchain field is high.

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The rise of blockchain 2.0, the Crowdsale tide pushed ETH up nearly 10,000 times. In the third round of the BTC (Token) price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH. Crowdsale after 2016, issued tokens mainly through Ethereum, which represented the rise of ETH in the blockchain 2.0 era. Crowdsale prosperity boosted the rise of ETH. On January 13, 2018, the price of ETH rose to a peak of 1,432.88 US dollars per piece, which is 6512 times rise rate comparing to its initial price.
The ETH price has a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of Crowdsale financing. The growth rate of Crowdsale financing decreased by 69.23% in 2015, the price of ETH decreased by 66.30% in the same year. In 2016, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 2737.5%, and ETH increased by 753.74%. In 2017, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 3,159.91%, and ETH rose by 8809.91%.

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Plan for public blockchain performance improvement emerged, and significant progress were made in lightning network. With the popularization of blockchains, the congestion of BTC and other public chains has gradually emerged, and performance has become one of the bottlenecks in the blockchain industry. In 2018, the performance-improvement plan of the public blockchain emerged. Improvements were made to the difference in blockchain logical architecture, including on-chain capacity expansion schemes by improving consensus mechanism and sharing, and off-chain capacity expansion schemes by status channel, sidechain, off-chain computing, and Layer 0 expansion scheme that enhance the scalability of the blockchain by optimizing the underlying data transmission protocol of the blockchain. Since the main net of BTC lightning network goes live, the number and capacity of channels have been increasing. As of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, and the number of channels has reached 35,464.

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Note: The Unique channel refers to the channel that is directly connected to the node for the first time, and the Duplicate channel refers to the channel between the nodes that have been connected.
The standardization of the token is promoted. On January 22, 2018, South Korea required all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, thereby prohibiting anonymous trading of BTC. During the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibited the promotion of Crowdsale, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated a large number of Crowdsale projects, and issued bans to some Crowdsale projects. Regardless of the government's attitude towards the token, it is committed to incorporating the token into the regulatory framework for legal compliance.
The Crowdsale bubble bursted and the magical story is no longer magical. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 871 Crowdsale were completed in the world. These projects involved directions as distributed analogous Facebook, twitter, amazon, and next-generation public chain (blockchain 3.0), etc. These projects have raised a large amount of funds, but the actual operating is worrying. The promotion of the project dissipated a large amount of funds, but the actual development progress was far less than expected, resulting in the market's expectation failure and the diversion of funds from the mainstream token. Superimposed the impact of more and more negative news, technical adjustment requirements and market sentiment fluctuation. The market enters a negative cycle, as the decline begins.

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In 2018, there has been rapid growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector, indicating that venture capital still have good expectations about the application and future prospects of the blockchain. According to Coindesk data, the risk investment in the blockchain sector in 2018 reverse the decline of 2017, year-on-year increase of 257%, and the total amount for the year 2018 reached 3.1 billion US dollars.

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BTC peaked first. In terms of time, in the third round of the price cycle, the first to peak is BTC, which reached 19,870.62 USD per piece in December 2017. The peak of ETH happened later than BTC, in January 2018. EOS did not peak until April. The important reason for BTC to peak first is that the amount of funds needed to support the BTC market value scale is the largest. When the market’s ability to carry on is not enough, it is inevitable for the price of BTC to react first.
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
The price cycle of BTC has obvious regularity, and some unchanging factors determine the price fluctuation of BTC.
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
One full BTC price cycle lasts approximately four years. In the first round of price cycles, the measure of time span is not reliable because of the availability of BTC trading prices. The second round of the price cycle lasted for 1,377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, about four years.
The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period, and the price-rising cycle starts one year before each halving. At the end of November 2012, the first production of BTC was halved, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 25, and in November 2011, the price of BTC has bottomed out, and the halving of BTC is one year after the second price-rising cycle. In July 2016, production of BTC was halved the second time, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 12.5. In August 2015, BTC had already bottomed out, and BTC's production was reduced again one year after the third price-rising cycle started.

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BTC output halving blows the horn of each price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begin. Although it is not BTC output halving that brings the price-rising cycle, but the halving of BTC output significantly reduced the growth rate of BTC supply, speeding up the rise of BTC price and the price-rising cycle. From November 2011 to November 2012, before the halving of BTC output, BTC increased by 6.74 times in one year. From November 2012 to November 2013, BTC price increased by 99.57 times. In the third price-rising cycle, BTC price rose by a maximum of 2.87 times in about 11 months before the production cut. After halving, BTC price rose by a maximum of 29.73 times in about 11 months.

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4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
The change in the market value scale of BTC (circulation) is mainly caused by its price fluctuations, and has little to do with the changes in the total amount of BTC output. According to CMC data, by April 28, 2013, the total amount of BTC that had been mined was about 11.18 million pieces, which is more than 53% of the total amount of BTC of 21 million pieces. The halving mechanism of BTC also accelerated the marginal decline of BTC total growth rate. Compared with the amount of BTC already mined, the new supply of BTC is very insignificant. In addition, the volatility of BTC prices far exceeds the volatility of BTC's total output, and the market value of BTC fluctuates with its price.
The market value of BTC has increased in trend. Because of the trend of BTC price-rising, the number of BTC total output has also increased in one direction, and the market value of BTC has increased in the long run. According to CMC data, on April 28, 2013, BTC's market value in circulation was only 1.5 billion US dollars. By the peak of the third price-rising cycle, the market value increased to 326.1 billion US dollars, and the current market value also reached 113.8 billion US dollars, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC is gradually getting smaller. With the increasing of BTC market value in trend, the BTC market is becoming more and more mature, more and more accepted by the public, more and more professional organizations are participating, the compliance operation is becoming mainstream, and the BTC price volatility is decreasing. Similar to the historical process of other asset classes, and the same thing is repeated again and again. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and the fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed

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4.3 BTC-led innovation continues to evolve and is more and more recognized by the mainstream
From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment.
The original intention of Nakamoto to create BTC is to establish a more efficient means of trading that can be electronically transferred in a safe, verifiable and non-tamperable form. During the early days of bitcoin and blockchain development, this drove the development of most applications of BTC and blockchain. However, with the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital token, the recognition of practitioners, and the evolution of government regulation, the changes led by BTC continue to evolve and gain more mainstream recognition.
More and more countries recognize that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many fields. The government has gradually incorporated digital token into regulation, and mainstream institutions are increasingly recognizing BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, as BTC took an important step toward mainstream investment, improving the accessibility of BTC to traditional financial institutions. In March 2017, Cameron's Cliveworth and Taylor W. Crawworth brothers attempted to submit an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for BTC ETF (transactional open-ended index fund). Although on September 22, 2018, US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine BTC ETF applications, the approval of BTC ETF application is a high probability event in the long run. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since the end of 2018, news about the organization of encrypted assets by mainstream institutions has continued.

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5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will start in May 2019, and mainstream institutions will enter the market, while ETF may become the core trend of the fourth round of BTC price cycle.
From the perspective of supply, the third halving of BTC begins around May 21, 2020. The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period. The price-rising cycle starts about one year before halving. From this perspective, the BTC price-rising cycle may be opened around May 2019.

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From the time dimension, the complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The third round of the price cycle, which started in August 2015, will be completed around August 2019, and the fourth round of the price cycle of BTC will begin thereafter. Considering that the data in the second round of the price cycle is more reliable, only the second round of price cycle data is used as the measurement standard, the complete price cycle is 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, and the third round price cycle may end around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycles, the downturn phase of the current price cycle has been probably more than half, and further downside space is limited. In the first two rounds of the price cycle, the duration of the downlink phase is less than the duration of the uplink phase. The duration of the third phase of the price cycle has been confirmed (845 days), while the duration of the downturn phase has been more than half of the upstream phase (450 days). From the first two rounds of the price cycle, the rapid decline in prices occurred in the early stage of the downtrend phase. The price fluctuations of BTC in the second half of the downturn phase have been significantly reduced. The BTC price declines reached 61% in the first half and 74% in the second round of the price cycle, and the corresponding maximum declines in BTC were 94% and 84% respectively. In the current round of the price cycle, the biggest drop has reached 84%, so take it from now, even if the price is further down, the downside space is already limited.
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Note: The data of the third round of the price cycle and the total duration are up to March 12, 2019.
From the price dimension, the downside space of the current round of BTC prices is limited, and the maximum increase of BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will become smaller. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed. On February 6, 2018, BTC fell to a minimum of 3,191.30 US dollars per piece, drop by 84.07%, has reached the low of second round of price cycle, from the perspective of price adjustment, BTC price downside has been more limited. The maximum increase in the fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustment, BTC prices have fully fallen, risks have been gradually released, and investor’s risk appetite has risen to create favorable conditions for BTC prices to stabilize. Beginning at the end of December 2018, the VIX index has fallen, and now it has reached 15 or below. The investor's risk appetite has gradually picked up, creating favorable conditions for the BTC price to rise stably.
Last but not least, from the perspective of capital, the mainstream institutions accelerated their entry and many positive signals were released. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since 2018, on the one hand, the entry of mainstream institutions can bring incremental funds to the entire market, on the other hand, it also contributes to the formal development of the entire industry.
The value of the BTC's market value in circulation continues to increase, and the digital token embraces regulation. It is expected that the ETF will be the core trend in the fourth price cycle. As the value of the BTC and digital token market increases, their use will be more tied-up to legitimate use than illegal activities. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data, only 10% of the current BTC transactions is related to illegal activities and 90% is used for legal transactions. BTC's increasingly large market value requires more financial support. Digital token will embrace supervision to absorb more funds, and ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, there is going to be an evolution from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace supervision.
Note:
Although in this report, we try to predict the bottom and time of Token, especially BTC, by using time and space cycle, we would like to tell investors that it is very dangerous to invest basing on a specific dot and time. An investment shall base on the assessment of the value of the token.
Here are our suggestions: 1. Do not try to predict the market. Mistakes are liable to happen when you try to predict market harshly. 2. Feel the cycle. Cycle is always there, because of the constant human nature;3. Be with a good Token, which will bring you more chance to win. 4.Keep valuation in mind. The most important thing in value investing is to keep the valuation in mind. If the price is reasonable, everything is getable. The key is the difference between price and value (Absolute valuation method is not available with Token because of its specialty. However, a relative valuation method can be applied. Please refer to Token Toll’s report series).
Notions:
For some reasons, some definition in this report are not very defined, such as: Token, Digital Token, Digital Currency, Currency, Crowdsale, etc.
If you have any questions, be free to call us to discuss with us.

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submitted by Token_Roll to u/Token_Roll [link] [comments]

ICO Avenues of Opportunities

Hello! My name is Nikolay Krasheninnikov, I am a Backend Developer at Platinum, the biggest crypto market player in the league. Our team knows how to start any security token offering and it is of great importance in 2019 as STOs are becoming the new norm today. See the full list of our services: Platinum.fund We also developed the coolest online courses on crypto economics ever made! How do security tokens work? How to launch your own STO/ICO? We know all the answers! How will ICO companies be adopted and integrated into the mainstream? Get the answer after reading Platinum article!
ICO As an Avenue of Opportunities
Since the first appearance of blockchain technology, people have been debating the continuing preeminence of fiat currency. Pro-crypto analysts argue that cryptocurrency has the potential to replace fiat as the currency of the future. Cryptocurrency is aided by the fact it transcends national borders, and it can transform and innovate quickly in response to different situations in a way that fiat currency cannot.
One of the most valuable innovations of blockchain technology is that it renders intermediaries unnecessary and obsolete. Middlemen acting as trusted third parties between unknown participants in a transaction will simply not be essential in the future. Banks have always been the safe storehouses and trusted channels to transfer money up until now. But the blockchain provides a secure, decentralized, and tamper-proof ledger which poses direct competition to the traditional banking system. Transactions are executed quicker and at lower comparative costs.
MoneyGram has been a major player dominating global money transfer services. Blockchain start-ups are coming forward with competitive platforms that offer faster, cheaper, and more versatile methods of international remittances. After witnessing the exceptional performance of bitcoin, a vast number of new currencies have sprung up that also base their platform on the principles of blockchain technology. The potential applications of blockchain technology have been most notably demonstrated in the financial sector. The real estate industry, for example, was disrupted by the introduction of Rentberry. The marketing and advertising industry was disrupted by Gnosis, and a host of others as well. “ “We saw an explosion in the use of the ICO fundraising method in 2017. In May, the ICO for a new web browser called Brave generated approximately $35 million in under 30 seconds.
Having previously issued $50 million tokens called “”Kin”” to institutional investors, the popular messaging app developer Kik’s ICO sought to raise an additional $125 million from the public, on top of the close to $100 million they had already raised.
By the end of 2017, ICOs had raised close to forty times as much capital as they had raised in the previous year. But this amount is still less than 2% of the total capital raised by traditional IPOs, just to provide a degree of context. This comparison is not necessarily fair because most IPO companies already have a functioning, profitable business in operation. But it does give us insight into the sheer depth of our capital markets, and shows us how far the ICO method of fundraising can mature from here.
According to industry newsletter Cointelegraph, companies raised around $6 billion via ICOs in 2017; 37% of that amount was made by only twenty ICOs. By February 2018, there was an estimated failure of 46% of the 2017 ICOs. Crowdfunding and syndication lawyer Amy Wan described the coin in an ICO as “”a symbol of ownership interest in an enterprise—a digital stock certificate”” stating that they are likely subject to regulation as securities in the USA.
“ “The Most Successful ICO Industries When ICOs First Launched
Mastercoin was the first project to introduce the ICO model. They secured $5 million worth of BTC during their ICO, and that was certainly a big success at the time. After that, various companies realized how the ICO model can ease the difficulty of fundraising by avoiding regulatory hurdles. Vitalik Buterin’s Ethereum was also one of the projects that utilized the ICO fundraising method. And then, Ethereum was quickly followed by Waves. Both of these projects raised over $10 million each.
The crucial factors to think about in the success of an ICO have been the following:
-Is the technology new or inventively applied? -Are reviews on ICO rating sites such as ICO Drops positive? -Does the project clearly solve a problem? -Is there a distinguished team behind the project? -What technical edge does the project have over similar projects? -What is the community sentiment and marketing situation?
The Most Successful ICO Industries in the Present Days
Some of the recent projects that have experienced tremendous success are BAT (Basic Attention Token), Rentberry, and EOS. We will examine BAT and Rentberry as our examples. “ “Present Days: BAT (Basic Attention Token) – Advertising Industry
The Basic Attention token revolutionizes the advertising sector by improving the efficiency of digital advertising. The technology is built around the Brave browser which has a special setting that allows users to see only the advertisements that are relevant to their browsing habits. The team noticed that people were being bombarded daily with too many ads while they were using the internet. Both ads that they want to see and ads they don’t want to see were indiscriminately popping up on pages they were visiting. This is due more to Google Adsense and Adword capabilities.
This team created a browser that gives users complete control of what advertisements they choose to see. The browser blocks out other ads to avoid constantly disrupting the users’ workflow. The ICO for this project was a massive success, and it showed how interested people were in BAT. Some analysts like to stress that the success of this ICO is also due to the influence of Brendan Eich who is the lead creator of the project.
Key figure: Brendan Eich
Mr. Eich developed the popular javascript language, as well as The Mozilla Firefox project, which he co-founded. Investors would jump at any feasible project presented by this caliber of individual. The Basic Attention Token sold one billion utility tokens at a valuation of $36 million in less than 30 seconds. The technology itself had over one million active users by the end of 2017 alone. BAT is a clear success, and the Brave browser team does not seem to be slowing down in 2018. “ “Present Days: Rentberry – Real Estate Industry
On the surface, this may seem to be a rather unusual sector for blockchain disruption, but Rentberry has recorded surprising success since their inception. This platform provides a decentralized home rental service, thereby eliminating real estate agents and their much-loathed exorbitant fees. Some regarded it as the Uber of real estate industry. Let us dive deeper into the tech and see why it is currently regarded as one of the most successful ICO projects.
According to their website, “Rentberry is a transparent home rental service and price negotiation platform uniting tenants and landlords. It automates all the standard rental tasks from submitting your personal information, credit reports and custom offers to e-signing rental agreements to sending maintenance requests”. In basic terms, they are cutting down on many of the middlemen involved in the real estate industry such as brokers, lawyers, insurance companies and escrow companies in order to unite tenants and landlords in a peer-to-peer platform.
Rentberry eventually sold over $30 million in its ICO, which made it the biggest ever for a company in the Property Tech / Real Estate space. It recently announced a strategic partnership with Roomdao which is disrupting the tourism industry and bringing blockchain technology directly to consumers. It would be a good idea to keep a close eye on the development of this company. “ “Notable Industry Examples of Failures
In this section, we will delve into two failed ICOs, Enigma and Coindash, and the reasons why they did not succeed. These ICOs delivered sub-optimal performance for investors, basically because they provided only sub-standard security.
ENIGMA – Security Industry
The goal of the Enigma Project is to turn “”smart contracts”” into “”secret contracts””. How does it do that? It keeps input data secret from nodes in the network that execute the code. It aims to function as an extra layer on top of all blockchains in order to fully bring about the decentralization of smart contracts from the authority of a central figure.
With that in mind, you can imagine the level of embarrassment felt by the founders when half a million dollars’ worth of ETH was successfully hacked prior to the commencement of the ICO. Enigmas mailing list, Slack channels and website were all compromised. That enabled the hackers to contact potential investors via Slack and inform them about early access to the ICO. The hackers made off with 1492 ETH of Enigma investor’s tokens, leaving the Enigma project resource’s untouched but their reputation in ruins even before they were able to begin their crowdsale.
In fact, the exact path to the Enigma project Slack account, where the hacker’s initiated their phishing scam, was through the personal email of Enigma founder Guy Zyskind!
“ ” ICOS in the Future : Industries likely to be revolutionized by the Blockchain
Obviously, the world cannot immediately adopt and adapt to all of the potential that the blockchain makes available right now. But the blockchain has already revolutionized the way industry leaders are thinking about the future. We will discuss some of the features of the blockchain that are ready to redefine the way certain sectors and industries operate.
Accounting
This is one sector most likely to be redefined by the blockchain. Transparency is a major feature of the blockchain due to the open ledger system. Keeping records on the blockchain eliminates human error and ensures the security of the data. Implementation of the blockchain will undeniably cause a quantum leap forward in this area, radically altering the future of accounting.
Business can become more efficient and productive, with less time required to simply create, maintain and prepare records. For the accounting industry, this will allow them to focus on value-added services, maybe even acquire new partners and open up new lines of business, rather than spend so much time on basic administrative tasks. “ ” Industries likely to be revolutionized by the Blockchain
Aviation
This industry plays a major role in the world economy. How can the blockchain influence aviation? Accenture is a blockchain-based company that intends to implement blockchain solutions to the aviation system. Specifically, Accenture is looking at simplifying the reconciliation process. According to the official website, “Using robust cryptographic techniques and a distributed messaging protocol, it creates shared ledgers that decentralize reconciliation-based processes”. The use of smart-contracts will eliminate time-consuming contractual transactions and bring about automatically validated agreements. This will of course render intermediates and middle men obsolete in the process. Processes such as ticketing, loyalty mechanics, security, identity, and maintenance can all be automated.
Financial Technology
The Fintech industry is facing direct and immediate impact from the blockchain. Right from the start, the banking and finance sectors have been significantly threatened by the fundamental ability of the blockchain to eliminate middle-men, reduce cost and time required to perform so many traditional financial transactions.
The blockchain Fintech industry has been growing exponentially within the overall crypto ecosystem. Projects that started before the blockchain have in many cases been fundamentally redesigned to adopt blockchain technology. Projects like Pecunio and Eotrade have fused the real world with the virtual world. “ ” Industries likely to be revolutionized by the Blockchain
Supply Chain Management
Blockchain technology has special characteristics that can make any supply chain significantly more efficient and responsive. It offers cost efficiency and traceability ensuring transactions, while also ensuring transparency at every step of the journey. This will make processes such as ownership transfers, production and payment problems disappear the same way better technology made black & white television disappear.
Other industries that are likely to experience a revolution due to the blockchain include governmental agencies and systems (for energy supply etc.), electioneering processes (voting), B2B (Business to Business) interactions, and B2C (Business to Customers) interactions, among many others.
But what actually is it about the blockchain that makes it such a powerful and disruptive force in government, industry and society at large?
The blockchain has special qualities and capabilities that no one and nothing else has had before; the use of smart contracts, and an immutable, transparent ledger system. “ ” Future of the ICO
ICOs have progressed way past the novelty of simply creating a new cryptocurrency. The financial sector has no choice but to acknowledge what the technology has to offer; adopt it and adapt to it. Like in any sophisticated system, there are major forces that help drive solutions toward greatness. There are professional teams and companies that can help ICO firms in the same way VCs have always helped early-stage companies in traditional industries.
We will look at the leaders and major players in the blockchain industry. We will see what their function is and how they have propelled the growth of ICOs.
Vedran Kajic, co-founder of CryptoTask, views ICOs as better means of raising funds than traditional IPOs. “”Smart contracts for smarter crowdfunding””. One example is that of the CryptoTask crowdfunding mechanism. Its code is audited by bitcoin/blockchain veteran Peter Vessenes who is the co-founder of the Bitcoin Foundation and Pantera Capital among others.
Stakeholders or token holders can vote on the project’s progress after the crowdfunding ends. If they are not satisfied, the code ensures that refunds are made to them. Funds are released for use in stages, only as the founders actually deliver. “ “Professional Traditional Firm Assistance to ICO Firms
At this point it is no longer in doubt that growth of blockchain technology is inevitable. If people have insufficient understanding of what that technology is, how it works, and what it can do, they may simply get left behind.
The role of experts and professional advisors etc., cannot be overstated. Team members must include marketing professionals, copywriters, community managers, legal counsel, business advisory boards, and a host of others. The important thing is that team members work together toward achieving the team goal.
The main function of an ICO is to raise funds for a blockchain related project. Investors commit funds for the incredible returns they can get. Advisors can help with networking, especially with venture capital firms and other financial backers.
More so than with conventional businesses, ICOs have little room to change their structure after it is established at the beginning of the project. But the key advantage ICOs have over traditional fundraising techniques is the ability for literally anybody to invest. This model has been tremendously successful for ICO companies so far. These companies have largely had this success due to the professionalism and talent of the team. VC firms are famous worldwide for their shrewd business insight, ownership and restructuring strategies. While traditional firms might not necessarily be able to help ICO companies change or improve the structure of the firm; they will have an increasingly valued role advising on business strategy and direction.
“ “Professional Traditional Firm Assistance to ICO Firms
ICO companies like Foundico and Antier offer a full suite of corporate services to ICOs in exchange for fees and tokens from the projects. These two companies offer a competitive alternative to the traditional firms assisting startups, and are a good example of the maturity and development of the blockchain industry.
The fact that the industry now has advisory firms providing this kind of sophisticated strategy for ICO startups demonstrates the confidence of the founders in the continued success of the business, and also the actual demand for the services.
ICOs as a funding mechanism will not completely replace the role of Venture Capital. They will coexist in a world where specialization is the rule. VC firms will no longer need to provide such comprehensive advisory services or networking abilities to early stage startups. Early stage companies will be able to look for an advisory firm with experience assisting a pre or ICO company, while at the same time being able to lean on VC firms for their strategy and thoughts on tokenomics.
Ultimately though the choice will be made by the founders of the ICO project. They can elect to use the full suite of corporate services available at any point in the progress of their ICO project; or they can selectively choose the advisory or other services they feel are the most valuable and beneficial for their needs. Founders and teams that are looking for a greater level of support and more confidence might consider a VC that already has experience scaling companies quickly. “ “Evolution of the ICO Process
Necessity for the Future
The major difference between ICOs and IPOs is that the latter is government regulated while the former is not. ICOs are a new concept. The cryptocurrency and blockchain industry is still struggling without a clear legal framework in this regard.
As of late 2017, certain ICOs require investors to do a KYC (Know Your Customer) before investors are allowed to purchase tokens. KYC involves sharing your personal information with the identity verification services that complete KYC processes for governments. This is a measure taken by the ICO companies to identify who purchased what tokens in their sale. This particular measure has been a significant step in legitimizing the ICO process. Hopefully this will lead to more regulatory clarification that will further advance the acceptance of ICOs as a legitimate funding mechanism.
The two primary attributes that need to develop for ICOs to be recognized and accepted are; the interplay between traditional regulation and the blockchain industry, as well as the clarity and transparency of regulations regarding the legal status ICOs.
The blockchain industry is still far from obtaining the clear legal status and regulatory framework it requires.
Universities and professional bodies can help by conducting research and publishing papers on the topic too. Universities can educate individuals about the opportunities and processes in the blockchain industry, further helping to drive the acceptance of blockchain technology into mainstream and academic social consciousness.” “The Maturity of the ICO Process
The ICO process has undergone considerable change as it matures. At first, users didn’t have to reveal their identities when investing in ICOs. With the recent adoption of KYC into almost all ICOs, investors are worried the decentralized nature of the system might be corrupted and forgotten.
Many people see this as the natural evolution of the ICO process. Other people have their doubts, and are growing reluctant to participate in ICOs.
Key Developments from the Beginning
There have been both positive and negative changes to the ICO process over the years. In the beginning, ICOs were defined without any knowledge of token metrics. People didn’t care about hardcaps. Often, the sales were more equitable and didn’t have large bonuses for private sales. Funds were almost entirely raised in public sales.
Over time, the process matured and more projects started to raise funds privately, in seed, private, and pre-sale. Small public sales were carried out to create demand to support price action on exchanges.
There has also been significant growth in the amount of funds raised as people have begun taking KYC more seriously. But due to the introduction of KYC, the process has lost some of its key values. The disadvantages of this maturity are:
-Regulatory scrutiny. -Loss of Anonymity. -Ambiguous fundraising prices and depths.
ICOs are becoming more popular and widely used in today’s blockchain economy, and this indeed shows that investors still have faith in the ICO system. Why ICOs matter for the future of business & finance? How to start your own ICO and become successful? Read the full lesson now: UBAI.co
Learn all about best blockchain platforms and other technologies after finishing the UBAI courses! Contact me via Instagram, Facebook and LinkedIn to learn more: Instagram Facebook LinkedIn
submitted by UBAI_UNIVERSITY to u/UBAI_UNIVERSITY [link] [comments]

BIP39 Words list

Nothing special, just a copy of the current list (for the future) of what can be found at https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/mastebip-0039/english.txt
abandon,ability,able,about,above,absent,absorb,abstract,absurd,abuse,access,accident,account,accuse,achieve,acid,acoustic,acquire,across,act,action,actor,actress,actual,adapt,add,addict,address,adjust,admit,adult,advance,advice,aerobic,affair,afford,afraid,again,age,agent,agree,ahead,aim,air,airport,aisle,alarm,album,alcohol,alert,alien,all,alley,allow,almost,alone,alpha,already,also,alter,always,amateur,amazing,among,amount,amused,analyst,anchor,ancient,anger,angle,angry,animal,ankle,announce,annual,another,answer,antenna,antique,anxiety,any,apart,apology,appear,apple,approve,april,arch,arctic,area,arena,argue,arm,armed,armor,army,around,arrange,arrest,arrive,arrow,art,artefact,artist,artwork,ask,aspect,assault,asset,assist,assume,asthma,athlete,atom,attack,attend,attitude,attract,auction,audit,august,aunt,author,auto,autumn,average,avocado,avoid,awake,aware,away,awesome,awful,awkward,axis,baby,bachelor,bacon,badge,bag,balance,balcony,ball,bamboo,banana,banner,bar,barely,bargain,barrel,base,basic,basket,battle,beach,bean,beauty,because,become,beef,before,begin,behave,behind,believe,below,belt,bench,benefit,best,betray,better,between,beyond,bicycle,bid,bike,bind,biology,bird,birth,bitter,black,blade,blame,blanket,blast,bleak,bless,blind,blood,blossom,blouse,blue,blur,blush,board,boat,body,boil,bomb,bone,bonus,book,boost,border,boring,borrow,boss,bottom,bounce,box,boy,bracket,brain,brand,brass,brave,bread,breeze,brick,bridge,brief,bright,bring,brisk,broccoli,broken,bronze,broom,brother,brown,brush,bubble,buddy,budget,buffalo,build,bulb,bulk,bullet,bundle,bunker,burden,burger,burst,bus,business,busy,butter,buyer,buzz,cabbage,cabin,cable,cactus,cage,cake,call,calm,camera,camp,can,canal,cancel,candy,cannon,canoe,canvas,canyon,capable,capital,captain,car,carbon,card,cargo,carpet,carry,cart,case,cash,casino,castle,casual,cat,catalog,catch,category,cattle,caught,cause,caution,cave,ceiling,celery,cement,census,century,cereal,certain,chair,chalk,champion,change,chaos,chapter,charge,chase,chat,cheap,check,cheese,chef,cherry,chest,chicken,chief,child,chimney,choice,choose,chronic,chuckle,chunk,churn,cigar,cinnamon,circle,citizen,city,civil,claim,clap,clarify,claw,clay,clean,clerk,clever,click,client,cliff,climb,clinic,clip,clock,clog,close,cloth,cloud,clown,club,clump,cluster,clutch,coach,coast,coconut,code,coffee,coil,coin,collect,color,column,combine,come,comfort,comic,common,company,concert,conduct,confirm,congress,connect,consider,control,convince,cook,cool,copper,copy,coral,core,corn,correct,cost,cotton,couch,country,couple,course,cousin,cover,coyote,crack,cradle,craft,cram,crane,crash,crater,crawl,crazy,cream,credit,creek,crew,cricket,crime,crisp,critic,crop,cross,crouch,crowd,crucial,cruel,cruise,crumble,crunch,crush,cry,crystal,cube,culture,cup,cupboard,curious,current,curtain,curve,cushion,custom,cute,cycle,dad,damage,damp,dance,danger,daring,dash,daughter,dawn,day,deal,debate,debris,decade,december,decide,decline,decorate,decrease,deer,defense,define,defy,degree,delay,deliver,demand,demise,denial,dentist,deny,depart,depend,deposit,depth,deputy,derive,describe,desert,design,desk,despair,destroy,detail,detect,develop,device,devote,diagram,dial,diamond,diary,dice,diesel,diet,differ,digital,dignity,dilemma,dinner,dinosaur,direct,dirt,disagree,discover,disease,dish,dismiss,disorder,display,distance,divert,divide,divorce,dizzy,doctor,document,dog,doll,dolphin,domain,donate,donkey,donor,door,dose,double,dove,draft,dragon,drama,drastic,draw,dream,dress,drift,drill,drink,drip,drive,drop,drum,dry,duck,dumb,dune,during,dust,dutch,duty,dwarf,dynamic,eager,eagle,early,earn,earth,easily,east,easy,echo,ecology,economy,edge,edit,educate,effort,egg,eight,either,elbow,elder,electric,elegant,element,elephant,elevator,elite,else,embark,embody,embrace,emerge,emotion,employ,empower,empty,enable,enact,end,endless,endorse,enemy,energy,enforce,engage,engine,enhance,enjoy,enlist,enough,enrich,enroll,ensure,enter,entire,entry,envelope,episode,equal,equip,era,erase,erode,erosion,error,erupt,escape,essay,essence,estate,eternal,ethics,evidence,evil,evoke,evolve,exact,example,excess,exchange,excite,exclude,excuse,execute,exercise,exhaust,exhibit,exile,exist,exit,exotic,expand,expect,expire,explain,expose,express,extend,extra,eye,eyebrow,fabric,face,faculty,fade,faint,faith,fall,false,fame,family,famous,fan,fancy,fantasy,farm,fashion,fat,fatal,father,fatigue,fault,favorite,feature,february,federal,fee,feed,feel,female,fence,festival,fetch,fever,few,fiber,fiction,field,figure,file,film,filter,final,find,fine,finger,finish,fire,firm,first,fiscal,fish,fit,fitness,fix,flag,flame,flash,flat,flavor,flee,flight,flip,float,flock,floor,flower,fluid,flush,fly,foam,focus,fog,foil,fold,follow,food,foot,force,forest,forget,fork,fortune,forum,forward,fossil,foster,found,fox,fragile,frame,frequent,fresh,friend,fringe,frog,front,frost,frown,frozen,fruit,fuel,fun,funny,furnace,fury,future,gadget,gain,galaxy,gallery,game,gap,garage,garbage,garden,garlic,garment,gas,gasp,gate,gather,gauge,gaze,general,genius,genre,gentle,genuine,gesture,ghost,giant,gift,giggle,ginger,giraffe,girl,give,glad,glance,glare,glass,glide,glimpse,globe,gloom,glory,glove,glow,glue,goat,goddess,gold,good,goose,gorilla,gospel,gossip,govern,gown,grab,grace,grain,grant,grape,grass,gravity,great,green,grid,grief,grit,grocery,group,grow,grunt,guard,guess,guide,guilt,guitar,gun,gym,habit,hair,half,hammer,hamster,hand,happy,harbor,hard,harsh,harvest,hat,have,hawk,hazard,head,health,heart,heavy,hedgehog,height,hello,helmet,help,hen,hero,hidden,high,hill,hint,hip,hire,history,hobby,hockey,hold,hole,holiday,hollow,home,honey,hood,hope,horn,horror,horse,hospital,host,hotel,hour,hover,hub,huge,human,humble,humor,hundred,hungry,hunt,hurdle,hurry,hurt,husband,hybrid,ice,icon,idea,identify,idle,ignore,ill,illegal,illness,image,imitate,immense,immune,impact,impose,improve,impulse,inch,include,income,increase,index,indicate,indoor,industry,infant,inflict,inform,inhale,inherit,initial,inject,injury,inmate,inner,innocent,input,inquiry,insane,insect,inside,inspire,install,intact,interest,into,invest,invite,involve,iron,island,isolate,issue,item,ivory,jacket,jaguar,jar,jazz,jealous,jeans,jelly,jewel,job,join,joke,journey,joy,judge,juice,jump,jungle,junior,junk,just,kangaroo,keen,keep,ketchup,key,kick,kid,kidney,kind,kingdom,kiss,kit,kitchen,kite,kitten,kiwi,knee,knife,knock,know,lab,label,labor,ladder,lady,lake,lamp,language,laptop,large,later,latin,laugh,laundry,lava,law,lawn,lawsuit,layer,lazy,leader,leaf,learn,leave,lecture,left,leg,legal,legend,leisure,lemon,lend,length,lens,leopard,lesson,letter,level,liar,liberty,library,license,life,lift,light,like,limb,limit,link,lion,liquid,list,little,live,lizard,load,loan,lobster,local,lock,logic,lonely,long,loop,lottery,loud,lounge,love,loyal,lucky,luggage,lumber,lunar,lunch,luxury,lyrics,machine,mad,magic,magnet,maid,mail,main,major,make,mammal,man,manage,mandate,mango,mansion,manual,maple,marble,march,margin,marine,market,marriage,mask,mass,master,match,material,math,matrix,matter,maximum,maze,meadow,mean,measure,meat,mechanic,medal,media,melody,melt,member,memory,mention,menu,mercy,merge,merit,merry,mesh,message,metal,method,middle,midnight,milk,million,mimic,mind,minimum,minor,minute,miracle,mirror,misery,miss,mistake,mix,mixed,mixture,mobile,model,modify,mom,moment,monitor,monkey,monster,month,moon,moral,more,morning,mosquito,mother,motion,motor,mountain,mouse,move,movie,much,muffin,mule,multiply,muscle,museum,mushroom,music,must,mutual,myself,mystery,myth,naive,name,napkin,narrow,nasty,nation,nature,near,neck,need,negative,neglect,neither,nephew,nerve,nest,net,network,neutral,never,news,next,nice,night,noble,noise,nominee,noodle,normal,north,nose,notable,note,nothing,notice,novel,now,nuclear,number,nurse,nut,oak,obey,object,oblige,obscure,observe,obtain,obvious,occur,ocean,october,odor,off,offer,office,often,oil,okay,old,olive,olympic,omit,once,one,onion,online,only,open,opera,opinion,oppose,option,orange,orbit,orchard,order,ordinary,organ,orient,original,orphan,ostrich,other,outdoor,outer,output,outside,oval,oven,over,own,owner,oxygen,oyster,ozone,pact,paddle,page,pair,palace,palm,panda,panel,panic,panther,paper,parade,parent,park,parrot,party,pass,patch,path,patient,patrol,pattern,pause,pave,payment,peace,peanut,pear,peasant,pelican,pen,penalty,pencil,people,pepper,perfect,permit,person,pet,phone,photo,phrase,physical,piano,picnic,picture,piece,pig,pigeon,pill,pilot,pink,pioneer,pipe,pistol,pitch,pizza,place,planet,plastic,plate,play,please,pledge,pluck,plug,plunge,poem,poet,point,polar,pole,police,pond,pony,pool,popular,portion,position,possible,post,potato,pottery,poverty,powder,power,practice,praise,predict,prefer,prepare,present,pretty,prevent,price,pride,primary,print,priority,prison,private,prize,problem,process,produce,profit,program,project,promote,proof,property,prosper,protect,proud,provide,public,pudding,pull,pulp,pulse,pumpkin,punch,pupil,puppy,purchase,purity,purpose,purse,push,put,puzzle,pyramid,quality,quantum,quarter,question,quick,quit,quiz,quote,rabbit,raccoon,race,rack,radar,radio,rail,rain,raise,rally,ramp,ranch,random,range,rapid,rare,rate,rather,raven,raw,razor,ready,real,reason,rebel,rebuild,recall,receive,recipe,record,recycle,reduce,reflect,reform,refuse,region,regret,regular,reject,relax,release,relief,rely,remain,remember,remind,remove,render,renew,rent,reopen,repair,repeat,replace,report,require,rescue,resemble,resist,resource,response,result,retire,retreat,return,reunion,reveal,review,reward,rhythm,rib,ribbon,rice,rich,ride,ridge,rifle,right,rigid,ring,riot,ripple,risk,ritual,rival,river,road,roast,robot,robust,rocket,romance,roof,rookie,room,rose,rotate,rough,round,route,royal,rubber,rude,rug,rule,run,runway,rural,sad,saddle,sadness,safe,sail,salad,salmon,salon,salt,salute,same,sample,sand,satisfy,satoshi,sauce,sausage,save,say,scale,scan,scare,scatter,scene,scheme,school,science,scissors,scorpion,scout,scrap,screen,script,scrub,sea,search,season,seat,second,secret,section,security,seed,seek,segment,select,sell,seminar,senior,sense,sentence,series,service,session,settle,setup,seven,shadow,shaft,shallow,share,shed,shell,sheriff,shield,shift,shine,ship,shiver,shock,shoe,shoot,shop,short,shoulder,shove,shrimp,shrug,shuffle,shy,sibling,sick,side,siege,sight,sign,silent,silk,silly,silver,similar,simple,since,sing,siren,sister,situate,six,size,skate,sketch,ski,skill,skin,skirt,skull,slab,slam,sleep,slender,slice,slide,slight,slim,slogan,slot,slow,slush,small,smart,smile,smoke,smooth,snack,snake,snap,sniff,snow,soap,soccer,social,sock,soda,soft,solar,soldier,solid,solution,solve,someone,song,soon,sorry,sort,soul,sound,soup,source,south,space,spare,spatial,spawn,speak,special,speed,spell,spend,sphere,spice,spider,spike,spin,spirit,split,spoil,sponsor,spoon,sport,spot,spray,spread,spring,spy,square,squeeze,squirrel,stable,stadium,staff,stage,stairs,stamp,stand,start,state,stay,steak,steel,stem,step,stereo,stick,still,sting,stock,stomach,stone,stool,story,stove,strategy,street,strike,strong,struggle,student,stuff,stumble,style,subject,submit,subway,success,such,sudden,suffer,sugar,suggest,suit,summer,sun,sunny,sunset,super,supply,supreme,sure,surface,surge,surprise,surround,survey,suspect,sustain,swallow,swamp,swap,swarm,swear,sweet,swift,swim,swing,switch,sword,symbol,symptom,syrup,system,table,tackle,tag,tail,talent,talk,tank,tape,target,task,taste,tattoo,taxi,teach,team,tell,ten,tenant,tennis,tent,term,test,text,thank,that,theme,then,theory,there,they,thing,this,thought,three,thrive,throw,thumb,thunder,ticket,tide,tiger,tilt,timber,time,tiny,tip,tired,tissue,title,toast,tobacco,today,toddler,toe,together,toilet,token,tomato,tomorrow,tone,tongue,tonight,tool,tooth,top,topic,topple,torch,tornado,tortoise,toss,total,tourist,toward,tower,town,toy,track,trade,traffic,tragic,train,transfer,trap,trash,travel,tray,treat,tree,trend,trial,tribe,trick,trigger,trim,trip,trophy,trouble,truck,true,truly,trumpet,trust,truth,try,tube,tuition,tumble,tuna,tunnel,turkey,turn,turtle,twelve,twenty,twice,twin,twist,two,type,typical,ugly,umbrella,unable,unaware,uncle,uncover,under,undo,unfair,unfold,unhappy,uniform,unique,unit,universe,unknown,unlock,until,unusual,unveil,update,upgrade,uphold,upon,upper,upset,urban,urge,usage,use,used,useful,useless,usual,utility,vacant,vacuum,vague,valid,valley,valve,van,vanish,vapor,various,vast,vault,vehicle,velvet,vendor,venture,venue,verb,verify,version,very,vessel,veteran,viable,vibrant,vicious,victory,video,view,village,vintage,violin,virtual,virus,visa,visit,visual,vital,vivid,vocal,voice,void,volcano,volume,vote,voyage,wage,wagon,wait,walk,wall,walnut,want,warfare,warm,warrior,wash,wasp,waste,water,wave,way,wealth,weapon,wear,weasel,weather,web,wedding,weekend,weird,welcome,west,wet,whale,what,wheat,wheel,when,where,whip,whisper,wide,width,wife,wild,will,win,window,wine,wing,wink,winner,winter,wire,wisdom,wise,wish,witness,wolf,woman,wonder,wood,wool,word,work,world,worry,worth,wrap,wreck,wrestle,wrist,write,wrong,yard,year,yellow,you,young,youth,zebra,zero,zone,zoo
submitted by lowcarbjc to btc [link] [comments]

What Is The ‘Why?’ of The Bitcoin Price-Spike?

brought to you by as-fast-as-i-can-type journalism:
“ . . . if a few hundred million Chinese decide that the time has come to use bitcoin as the capital-controls-bypassing currency of choice, and decide to invest even a tiny fraction of the $22 trillion in Chinese deposits in bitcoin (whose total market cap at last check was just over $3 billion), sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the bitcoin bubble . . . ”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-03/bitcoin-surges-1-year-highs-100-china-capital-controls-august-lows

Perhaps the most important global economic indicator at this second is:

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/se_composite

But let’s back up a little:

‘There’s mania in China right now. Stock market mania.’
http://fortune.com/2014/12/17/chinas-stock-market-goes-boom
That was December, 2014.

So, how is Shanghai doin’ today? eleven months later?

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/se_composite
Look to the top right. Note that about 2.5% per annum increase is all that’s left of the manic rise. Find the ‘6-month chart.’ The drop began in June.

But the above is just background. What we want to know is:

what is the big economic picture in China today? It's not just bad, it's appalling; and the behaviour of the Shanghai Exchange is a great insight. If they can't prop it up, they can't prop anything up.

Note the lift in Shanghai’s index in the last couple of months. Recovery? Not a bit of it! The Chinese Government is ‘backstopping’ the market with print-as-required capital:

‘China’s heavy-handed interventions ha[ve] turned their stock markets into “a government bureaucracy.” ‘
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-13/u-s-plunge-protection-team-s-lessons-for-china
“ . . . the government will act to [try to . . . ] keep the bull market intact . . . ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-19/jpmorgan-says-buy-china-stocks-now-as-government-backstops-rally

And then (August) came:

“China devalues yuan for third straight day, adding to fears of currency war.”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/13/china-devalues-yuan-for-third-straight-day-adding-to-fears-of-currency-war
So Chinese investors have seen the Government muff The 2009-Launched Quantum Leap to Domestic Demand (from decades of orientation to exporting). This involved The Property Boom that created the ‘ghost cities’ (which I was reading about a zillion years before the mainstream press knew of their existence):
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=chinese+ghost+cities&espv=2&biw=1745&bih=890&site=webhp&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0CCEQsARqFQoTCIzswcG99cgCFYQypgodxAMEUA
The Property Boom involved the mushrooming of the ‘shadow banking’ industry, which now has gangrene half way up its thigh:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/07/the-75-trillion-dollar-shadow-banking-system-is-in-danger-of-collapsing.html
[Then came the stock-market boom we started with.]
Next is The Macau Thang: don’t confuse the fate of the casinos with my point. **Woven into the trips were opportunities to convert Yuan to other currencies.88 The crackdown is about that:
http://qz.com/491724/chinas-crackdown-on-corruption-is-killing-macaus-economy
Then the miserable state of the Chinese economy began to be apparent even to the deaf and dumb of Wall Street:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/28/chinese-economic-slowdown-jackson-hole-bankers-investors
Conclusion: the future of cryptos lies in global economic turmoil.
submitted by indiamikezulu to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

The case for Bitcoin

I posted this on my blog a couple of weeks ago, and since Bitcoin has been getting a lot of press lately I thought investing might be interested. Also bitcoinmarkets pretty much hated it and told me to post it here instead.
I won't be going in too deep of the underlying technology behind it, cause, you know..it's boring as shit. Of course the technology part is of great importance, but it's better explained by math/computer geeks - aka smart people. In short, Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer network containing units (bitcoins) that can be transferred in the system with zero to low costs. These units can themselves incorporate other pieces of data. Every transaction is verified by the computers running the system. The math behind it makes it impossible for any entity to mess with this process of continuous update of the ledger. The ledger being a sort of receipt which contains all previous transactions in the network. To break the system you would need to muster up more than half of the systems combined computer power. Discounting the possibility of quantum computing this would be incredibly expensive and/or impossible. Which is why banks around the world are working with this technology (not Bitcoin but the block-chain tech) to make tradingsystems where traders can buy/sell stocks. But to understand why Bitcoin is a good hedge, we need to understand money and the fragility of our current economy, and why this might lead to a lot of demand for bitcoins.
Money
Money is one of man’s greatest inventions. Since we left the barter system and started using mediums of exchange, different types of mediums has been used for trading. Gold, grain, salt amongst others, gold obviously being the most famous one. The right to redeem those papers you hold in your wallet for gold ended in a peculiar fashion with the death of Bretton Woods, and ever since then, we've been trading in fiat.(1). Like art, the intrinsic value of gold is definitely questionable. Yes, everyone does seem to desire gold, still it has very limited usefulness. Paper money being a lot worse, one could argue these unredeemable paper notes are worth as much as regular paper. But the fact that you need this fiat-money to pay taxes gives the market certainty of demand in the future, which I believe is the main reason why the markets are able to attribute these notes value.
Governmental control of money
As fiat became the predominant transmitter of wealth in our economy, governmental control over money increased. From a naive standpoint that power shift could seem unsignificant, but I would argue it has given us a profound shift in real economic activities. Money in the form of gold had a certain inflation built in to it, since people continuously dig it up from the ground. Yet the gold-economy saw price deflation as production became more efficient, thanks to the invisible hand of the market and advancements in technology. These deflationary powers were at times greater than the inflation coming from new gold findings. This might seem a little off topic but what I want to say is that price-deflation has historically been the norm, and shouldn't be viewed as dangerous. In todays fiat-world however, we hear about central banks trying to fight deflation, believing such an environment would be bad for the labour market. The main argument being that workers have a hard time accepting lower nominal wages, and that this causes overwhelming troubles for companies when they have to cut labour costs. Although fairly logical, I think this theory is disputed by our economic history and should in my opinion definitely not be taken as a fact. However, today when we hear about central banks fighting deflation, what they're really fighting is a credit crunch. Debt, also a form of money, has been growing increasingly for quite some time, driven of course by both fiscal and monetary policy actions. A deleveraging of debt would shrink the amount of debt-money, largely concentrated in stocks/bonds/real estate. This is what central banks are fighting, their job is basically to get this overly leveraged economy, more leveraged. Needless to say, we're in uncharted territory and their might be huge systemic risks involved. Bitcoin may be one way to hedge against this.
Government deficits and unfunded liabilities
At which rate would you be willing to loan money to Greece? This one is really a no-brainier, meaning you shouldn't have to think to come up with an answer, since Greece wouldn't pay you back either way. Greece has a enormous debt and a whole lot of unfunded liabilities. These unfunded liabilities are mostly consisting of workers pensions and healthcare obligations to the greek people. Greek politicians will always rank these payment obligations as a higher priority expenditure than to give "greedy speculators" back their money. That simple fact holds true for most government bonds. Therefore I think almost all government bonds are worth substantially less than they are being priced today. Right now the market deems these bonds as low-risk assets. For example, the U.S 10-year bond yields around 2%. In other words; you'll get close to no return (if the FED manages to reach close to its inflation target) for loaning out your money to the worlds largest debtor nation for a period of ten years. This anomaly is so great and profound, it should be viewed as a major indicator on just how messed up things have become. How did we get these absurd yields? Well, demand for bonds drive the yields down, and ever since the financial crisis central banks like the FED and ECB has been on a buying spree. Speculators joined them in their buying and have been betting on the the continuing bondpurchasing from the CB's, or holding a belief that the CB's will be unable to reach inflation targets, basically taking a bet on deflation. In a real market economy (not driven by central banks) with a low savings rate like the United States, these bonds would yield a lot more. The fact is the U.S, much like Greece, can’t repay its debt, ever, it’s impossible, nope, can’t be done. The U.S national debt is around 18 trillion dollars and their unfunded liabilities sums up to another whopping 210 trillion (as testified to congress by Boston university economic professor Laurence Kotlikoff).(2) Even though a lot of these future expenditures as Kotlikoff is including in his measurment could be slashed, some of them, like pensions, are going to be extremely unpopular to cut. If you listen to austrian economists they are pretty much all agreeing, proclaiming that the writing has been on the wall for quite some time.
Fear of haircuts
If this whole experiment with low interest rates fails, and economic chaos indeed ensues, I expect governments around the world to act in a similar fashion as seen in Greece/Argentine. Bank depositors will most likely have to take a haircut on their deposits to refinance the banking system. I believe the threat of this bail-in approach to reach debt-equilibrium in the financial world, will drive people to assets which cannot be confiscated. And if you don't think bail-in is a high probabilty event in your country, here's Reuters reporting on the new bail-in legislation: "Bail-in legislation is now being extended to other EU countries, regardless of whether they're in the Euro or not."(3).We’ve already seen some correlations of the Bitcoin price with bad economic sentiment, and I expect that trend to catch on as time proceeds. The most clear cut example of this we got during the summer, with the increase in demand for bitcoins during the Greek-crisis. The day Greece reached an agreement with its creditors- Bitcoin dropped 12%. Yet, recent volatility in global stocks has not been accompanied with upward pressure on Bitcoin. When Dow Jones fell a thousand points intraday, Bitcoin fell as well. Suggestion the link between financial instability and the value of bitcoins at least for now is rather weak. But take a look at Argentine and their post collapse economy and you'll find something very interesting. After suffering a bond market collapse and soaring inflation, it is here where bitcoin is having the most impact as an actual money transmitter. As NYT notes ”Argentine has been quietly gaining renown in technology circles as the first, and almost only place where bitcoins are being regularly used by ordinary people for real commercial transactions.”(4)
Valuation and risk
First of all, one should obviously not invest more than what's bearable to lose, since there's a nontrivial chance of bitcoin having the value of zero in the future. I also don't want to be responsible for anyone losing a big piece of their net worth, but if you invest your money according what someone on the internet with the name "UngNaiv" (young and foolish) you probably have no one to blame but yourself. Anyway, today Bitcoin have a market cap of about 4.5 billion dollars. Besides a small market cap, the uncertainty of demand and the arguably lack of intrinsic value is two of its biggest weaknesses. Even if you believe in the idea of a digital currency, Bitcoin is far from the only one out there. There's competition in the form of other cryptocurrencies with similar but different properties, and only the future will tell which of these (if any) will come out on top. As for now though, Bitcoin has established itself as the clear frontrunner. There is also a high governmental risk involved. If our political leaders start seeing this digital money as a threat to its powers of taxation, or fears grow about what it might do to enable shady transactions, it will certainly go out of its way to try and stop it. Even though the Bitcoin as a system itself is resiliencent to government intervention, one could easily foresee regulation aimed to strangle Bitcoin companies operating in the real world, making mass adoption a lot less likely. So far the western world haven’t cracked down too much on Bitcoin, in some places it has even been declared as a currency, not a commodity, meaning any potential gains in one's holding in those countries would be free from taxation. I'll leave the risks of the underlying technology to be explained by someone else, but google the words Bitcoin+fork and you'll find another very good reason not to go full retard in bitcoins.
References:
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/nixon-shock (1)
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/economist-tells-congress-us-may-be-worse-fiscal-shape-greece (2)
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN0OD14Z20150528 (3)
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/03/magazine/how-bitcoin-is-disrupting-argentinas-economy.html?_r=0 (4)
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